York’s Ebor festival is behind us now and although I never got involved there are plenty of horses for the “proverbial notebook.” I think the next big flat festival is Champion’s Weekend in Ireland split between the Curragh and Leopardstown in the second weekend in September and if there is something worthwhile backing at a decent price I’ll be tipping it.
All tips are for a one point win with bookmakers who offer BOG and for a one point place at Betfair Exchange SP.
My results spreadsheet for all of my tips is here.
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2.15 Curragh – Ambiguity 7/2
2.30 Brighton – Extra Solar 7/2
3.10 Chelmsford – Misty Lord 11/4
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Open a Betfair account HERE. Then place a £10 bet and get THREE £10 bets free!
I am surprised to see France being the tournament favourites at 10/3 as I would have thought that it is between Spain and Germany myself, but we will have to wait and see how the tournament unfolds.
I am not going to bother with individual matches but I have noticed that Betfair are doing daily accumulators on the exchange so I might lay a few of them.
Instead I will back the first three in the betting and lay them back after they qualify from the group stages. Assuming that all three don’t qualify I will put up addition bets in a different post.
I prefer this way of betting but if you don’t have a Betfair account you can always back all three to qualify in a treble, but (there is always a but) if one of the them wins you will make more money this way!
Oh by the way if you if you fancy England to win (I don’t), Betfair are offering England at 33/1 for new accounts and all you have to do is lay them back at around 11/1 on the exchange for a free bet on them! Plus you get the bet £10 and get £30 free offer below too!
Back France 4.40
Back Germany 5.70
Back Spain 6.20
All for 2 points and prices are with Betfair exchange.
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Open a Betfair account HERE. Then place a £10 bet and get THREE £10 bets free!
Yesterday’s Aintree tip came 2nd but I made up for it with my darts tips.
2.50 Aintree (Grade 1) 3m
I am siding here with the David Pipe trained Un Temps Pour Tout. He is a Cheltenham Festival winner beating the useful Holywell by 7 lengths last time out. It’s a step up in class today but he is a grade 1 hurdle winner in France.
He has won 5 times in 20 attempts and has won on soft ground. He should like the trip as he has won twice over 3m1f.
Un Temps Pour Tout – 2/1 Ladbrokes, Bet365 & 7 More BOG Firms
This is a very open group 3 with the overnight favourite Endless Drama being declared a non runner.
I like the look of the seasoned sprinter Gordon Lord Byron who loves it at the Curragh as he won twice here last year. He won a listed 6f sprint back in June and then 3 weeks later he went on to win a 7f group 3 on similar ground (good-soft).
He has also won a group 2 sprint at Ascot on soft in 2014, so he will go on the ground!
Gordon Lord Byron is currently 3rd in the betting at 11/2 and although I fancy him to win the favourite deserves some respect here as he is a group 1 & group 3 winner at this track over 6f, so I will include some added safety of getting my money back if GLB finishes 2nd or 3rd AKA coverbet/insurebet 3 places. Only 4 bookies do this type of bet Bet365, Skybet, Powers & Hills and they are all usually priced up around 11am.
BACK Gordon Lord Byron To Win With Coverbet 3 Places – 4/1 Hills
I wish that there were more match play tournament as I personally find it more exciting to watch than stroke play.
Now I think that Day and Casey will win their matches as they are playing well at the moment and the double pays just under 7/4. But if I get 1 match wrong it’s more or less a 1 point loss whether I do the double or do the 2 lays. But if I lay their opponents instead I have the added benefit of winning if the matches are ties too.
Day v Mcdowell (3.20pm GMT)
Jason Day won this back in 2014 and won last weeks Arnold Palmer Invitational. Graeme Mcdowell came joint last in this last year and has missed the cut in his last 2 tournaments.
Lay Mcdowell at 3.25 (9/4) Betfair Exchange
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Casey v Jaidee (3.30 GMT)
Paul Casey has finished runner-up in this tournament twice and has had 2 top 10 finishes in his last 2 tournaments.
Lay Jaidee at 3.25 (9/4) Betfair Exchange
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NB – Lay means not to win.
Click here to get the BET £10 & GET £30 FREE offer with Betfair.
Click here to see the draw and my outright wins/trades.
Round 1 starts at 1pm on Tuesday 22nd of March and concludes on Wednesday night. I am putting all my tips up for round 1 in 1 post and have grouped together matches for both days with bookies offering the best prices.
Fu v McManus (Tue)
In the last ETC tournament Fu won his first 4 matches either 4-0 or 4-1. On the head to heads Fu is ahead 3:1 winning easily enough 10-3, 10-3 and 4-2 and I think Fu will win this either 4-1 or 4-2.
Ding v Gilbert (Tue)
Ding is playing well again as mentioned in my previous post. Dave has lost his last 2 best of 7 frames matches 4-1 and one of those defeats was against an amateur and I expect Ding to win this with plenty in hand.
Murphy v Wenbo (Tue)
Shaun Murphy’s season is back on track after he recent win in the World Grand Prix. The last time these played each other Shaun won 4-0. The last 3 times these have played Murphy won -1.5 frames and I think Shaun will serve up more of the same on Tuesday.
Carter v Dott (Tue)
Ali Carter is the favourite to win this match but I don’t think he will win as if you exclude the Championship League (Best of 5 frames) and the Shoot out (1 frame) Graeme has won 4:0, so it’s a Dott win for me here.
Brecel v White (Tue)
These 2 have met twice and Michael White won them both 4-2 and 4-3. I don’t think this will be a 1 sided match and I expect a similar scoreline Tuesday night.
McLeod v Dunn (Tue)
I expect this to be another close match as Mike Dunn’s last 6/7 best of 7 matches all went to a deciding frame and the other match ended 4-2. So over 5.5 frames looks very possible.
Day v K Wilson (Wed)
These 2 have played twice since Kyren Wilson turned pro and on both occasions they went to deciding frames. This should be another close match but it’s a toss of a coin who will win for me.
Pengfei v Milkins (Wed)
Robert Milkins tends to play well in this short format and Penfei is off the boil as his last 4 wins were all against amateurs, so my money is on Robert to win this.
King v Baird (Wed)
Surprisingly these 2 have never played before but I am siding with Mark King as he plays well in the best of 7’s. He has reached the quarter-finals in the last 2 ETC tournaments and made the semis in ETC 2. Sam Baird’s best result all season was way back in November where he reach the semi-finals of ETC 4.
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Over 5.5 Frames Treble
Brecel v White
Mcleod v Dunn
Day v Wilson
10/3 Hills (4.25)
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Dott To Beat Carter
6/5 Stan James (2.20)
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Win Double
King to beat Biard
Milkins to beat Pengfei
15/8 Bolyesports (2.92)
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-1.5 Frames Edge Treble
(Money back if 1 leg loses)
Fu
Ding
Murphy
2 points
9/4 Betfair Sportsbook (3.23)
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The edge multiple is where you get your stake back if 1 leg lets you down and is only available with Betfair Sportsbook.
Click here to get the BET £10 & GET £30 FREE offer with Betfair.
Slowly but surely I am warming to the new “fast food” version of snooker where it’s the first to 4 frames. There were 6 ETC/PTC tournaments in which all the matches were the best of 7s and the finals this week consist of the top 32 ETC/PTC ranked players. Matt Selt managed to get in the back door taking Mark Selby’s place as he had withdraw due to personal reasons.
So it’s a 32 man knock-out affair held in “mad for it” Manchester with the exact same format as the recent World Grand Prix including the same sponsor and covered by the same TV channel, ITV4. All matches up to & including the QF’S are the best of 7 frames, SF’S are the best of 11 frames & the final is the best of 19 frames.
This is the final year of the ETC/PTC tournaments which is a shame really as it gave the lower ranked players and the amateurs a chance to play the top players. I don’t know what tournaments that are lined up for next season will cater for them.
But I have heard that next season there will be a home nations series of the English open, Scottish open, Irish open to go along side the Welsh open, that will replace the ETC/PTC events. Naturally this is open to overseas players with a bumper bonus if any player wins all 4 which should give O’ Sullivan fans something to cheer about as he should be on TV more often. He doesn’t like travelling overseas and these events should be right up his street. But I can’t help but think the idea of these was to cater for him, but of course no body will admit to this as the sport is bigger than any one player, so we are led to believe!
Betfair don’t usually bother with these “pro-am” events but they do this time around as they are televised on ITV4 rather than on Eurosports, which is great as I can trade 2 players from the bottom half.
I am looking forward to seeing Alan McManus and Neal Foulds who are becoming 2 of my favourite snooker pundits as they tend to bring something new to each match. Plus they also have Clive Everton who is snooker gold on the commentary front. But on the downside they have borrowed Phil Yates from Eurosports who’s has such an annoying voice and his analogies are so corny that I tend to turn the volume down when he is commentating.
The Draw For The Players Tour Championship Finals
Matt Selt v Andrew Higginson
Ben Woollaston v Jimmy Robertson
Mark Williams v Dominic Dale Shaun Murphy v Liang Wenbo
Mark Allen v Mark Davis
Mark King v Sam Baird
Ryan Day v Kyren Wilson
Rory McLeod v Mike Dunn
Marco Fu v Alan McManus
Tom Ford v Ricky Walden
Martin Gould v Judd Trump
Ali Carter v Grame Dott Ding Junhui v Dave Gilbert
Michael White v Luca Brecel
Tian Pengfei v Robert Milkins
Barry Hawkins v Michael Holt
Shaun Murphy
Shaun has had a mediocre season up until his last tournament, the World Grand Prix, where he beat Stuart Bingham in a deciding frame final. With no O’ Sullivan, Mark Selby or Neil Robertson to contend with this week he has a relatively easy top half draw and is my pick to win this tournament.
Back Murphy to win outright at 7/1 Marathon Bet (6.00)
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Judd Trump
Judd is in the bottom half of the draw and on paper if all goes well he should meet Ding in the bottom half semi-finals. He won the Championship League beating O’ Sullivan 3-2 in the final and is showing signs that he is coming back to his best. Judd is the tournament favourite and is best priced with several bookies at 4/1 but you can get 5/1 with Betfair Exchange. He can throw in the odd bad match so I will trade rather than back him to win outright.
Back Trump to win at 6.20 (5/1) Betfair Exchange
Lay Trump in running at 4.00 (3/1) Betfair Exchange
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Ding Junhui
Ding equalised the most tournaments won in a season of 5 for the 2013/2014 season and has played pretty poor since. Well until last month where he got a 147 and reach the quarter-finals in the Welsh Open, reach the semi-finals of the Grand Prix. It’s great to see him back to his best after 18 months or so in the doldrums. The bottom half is between Ding and Judd and as they both can’t win outright I will trade Ding too.
Back Junhui to win at 13.00 (12/1) Betfair Exchange
Lay Junhui in running at 10.00 (9/1) Betfair Exchange
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NB – Approximately 25% of my profits are made from backing and trading the outright win markets in snooker, darts & golf combined. You can only trade or back to lay on a betting exchange such as Betfair.
Click here to get the BET £10 & GET £30 FREE offer with Betfair.
I cocked up yesterday by trading Justin Rose as he never came down in the betting at all as he went out and is currently 13.00 after 3 rounds. I will leave it as it is as you never know as he is only 5 shots back and if he gets within 2 shots my lay bet might get matched.
Jason day is 2 shots ahead going into round 4 and he tees off at 6pm GMT (2pm local time). He is currently 10/11 to win outright so I will back him when he is odds against in running as I can only see either Day or Stenson winning today.
Back Day if his lead reduces by 1 shot
Estimated price 5/4 – 6/4 depending on how Stenson is playing
Betfair Exchange
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Click here to get the BET £10 & GET £30 FREE offer with Betfair.
A placepot is where you have to get your selection/s placed in the first 6 races of any meeting. They can be put on with most bookmakers online in the tote section or you can do them in any betting shop. Feel free to contact me on Facebook or Twitter if you want me to explain it further.
Click here for all of my Cheltenham Festival 2016 results.
Day 4 Placepot Selections
1.30 Zubayr (1-2-3)
2.10 Blue Hell (1-2-3-4)
2.50 Shantou Village (1-2-3)
3.30 Don Cossack (1-2-3)
4.10 On the Fringe (1-2-3)
4.50 Qualando & Ibis Du Rheu (1-2-3-4)
2 lines or 2 bets at 0.10 point each and in brackets are the places available.
Apex Sports Tips 